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Unexpectedly large corn supplies, delayed harvest, and export forecasts diverge from historical trends

Guang Tian (October, 2026)

Summary

USDA’s October 9 reports delivered a sizable increase in projected corn supplies. Following the September 30 Grain Stocks report, USDA raised 2026/27 beginning stocks by 173 million bushels to 2.1 billion bushels and increased the corn yield estimate by 2.7 bushels per acre to 181.2 bushels per acre. The higher national corn yield estimate reflected month-over-month gains in several western and southern states, such as Nebraska, Texas, Tennessee, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Ohio. Estimates for Iowa, Minnesota, Indiana, and Missouri were unchanged, while Illinois’s yield estimate declined by 0.5%.