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Thoughts on the Relationship between Corn Price Expectations and Farmland Values

Summary

Farmland in the U.S. Corn Belt clearly illustrates this issue. Commodity demand has undergone a number of substantial shifts ranging from rapidly growing demand in emerging economies and the widespread adoption of biofuel policies. On the supply side, the world has witnessed a number of weather induced negative supply shocks in critical growing regions which have limited supply availability. At the same time, world cropland acreage has begun to increase, and farmers in the U.S. are rapidly adopting technology that has the potential to increase supplies. All of these factors make it difficult to estimate future incomes.